Poker Chance Of Winning Calculator

1. Calculating Your Poker Odds. Once you know how many outs you’ve got (remember to only include “good outs”), it’s time to calculate your odds. There are many ways to figure the actual odds of hitting these outs, and we’ll explain three methods. This first one does not require math, just use the handy chart below: Table #3 – Poker.
2. The Poker Odds Calculator will help you calculate your chances on a given hand, in any situation. One of the most interesting features of the PokerNews Poker Odds Calculator is the guide on the.
3. In case the opponent plays both AA and QQ 100% of the time in that situation, you might consider your chances of winning poker around 50%, but if the opponent plays AA 100% of the time and only plays QQ some other% of the time, your chances of winning take a hit. You’d be going against AA the majority of the time.

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Poker odds can appear confusing at first, but once you understand some of the basic fundamentals about how they work, not only will you have a much better understanding of the game itself, but you’ll also stand a higher chance of winning while playing the game.

In this post, we’re going to take a look at all forms of poker odds, from poker hand odds, how to calculate poker odds, the best poker winning hands, and more – and we’ll begin by taking a look at how exactly the odds work in conjunction with the game.

How Poker Odds Work

To look at how poker odds actually work, it can be handy to use an example of a football game. Let’s say the Chargers are playing the Eagles. A bookmaker may give the Eagles 3:1 odds to beat the Chargers. This means that for every $1 you staked, you would win $3, were the Eagles to win.

This, of course, roughly equates to the Eagles having a 1 in 3 chance of beating the Chargers – and this is the general ethos of how odds work, both in sports betting, and poker.

This free online poker odds calculator and analyzer helps you to calculate your hand's winning odds, evaluate possible opponents hands you could lose to and tell you how much to bet optimally. Gain an edge by using our calculator while you are playing online Texas Hold'em. We include the following features: Your winning chance (or equity). The probability for a tie in a two-player game of five-card stud is 0.000344739, or 1 in 2,901. Video: Probabilities in Five Card Stud Poker; Poker Math - How to derive the combinations for five-card stud. Probabilities in Two-Player Texas Hold 'Em — Lots of tables based on two-player Texas Hold 'Em. Written by:Michael Shackleford.

The higher the odds, the less chance you have of winning – and subsequently, the lower the odds, the more chance you have of winning.

Poker Hand Odds

One of the most common scenarios you’ll hear about odds in poker, is when looking at your “outs”. We’ll cover this in the section below – in this part of the guide, we’re going to look at the actual odds of getting some of the most popular and sought-after poker hands.

• Being Dealt Pocket Aces: Pocket aces are the premium starting hand in ALL Texas Hold’em games, and the odds of being dealt two aces is 0.4525% – equating to odds of 1:220. This means that you can expect to be dealt pocket aces once out of every 220 hands you play. (An interesting statistic is the chances of both you AND your opponent being dealt pocket aces. In this situation, the probability is just 0.0816%, equating to odds of 1:1,224!
• Hitting a Set on The Flop: Most players will always try to reach the flop when they hold a pair in their hand, pre-flop, as, if they’re able to make a 3-of-a-kind hand, they stand a very good chance of winning against their opponents. If you hold a pair pre-flop, the chances of hitting a set on the flop are relatively good; the probability is 11.7551%, equating to odds of 1:8.
• Hitting Quads: 4-of-a-kind is one of the strongest hands in Texas Hold’em, and it’s a hand that – despite being very hard to get – probability wise, isn’t actually too hard! The probability of making quads if you have a pair pre-flop, and make it all the way to the river, is 0.8163%, equating to odds of 1:122. Things become a little crazier when you look at the chances of two players hitting quads; in this case, the probability is just 0.0003%, equating to odds of 1:312,663!
• Royal Flush: The unbeatable hand – the hand all players dream of getting – a Royal Flush is the best possible hand in Texas Hold ‘Em poker, and cannot be beaten. Interesting, the board will only allow for a Royal Flush 1 in 59 times – and the odds of just ONE player making a royal flush at a full 9-person ring game is 1:3,628.

That’s just a few of the most common poker odds scenarios. It can be useful to have a rough idea of the odds for various hands and occurrences – but for the most-part, you don’t need to think into it too deeply, as the more important thing to worry about is the odds of you hitting your “outs”.

Outs and How to Use Them to Calculate Probability in Texas Hold’em

In Texas Hold’em poker, if you require an additional card, or more than one card to complete your hand, you’ll be looking to hit what’s known as an ‘out’.

For example, say you hold 5, 6 off-suit pre-flop, and the board comes King, 7, 8. You now have an up-and-down straight draw, meaning you need to hit either a 4 or a 9 to complete a straight – a strong hand that gives you a very good chance of winning over your opponents.

Now, in a 52-card deck, there are four 4’s, and four 9’s, which means you have 8 cards out of the 52 to hit your hand. However, you’ve already been dealt two cards – and there are three showing on the flop – which means the actual probability of hitting one of the cards you need is 8:47.

This means that approximately one in 6 times the turn card is dealt, you’ll hit your hand. Now, you may be thinking “why is this important” – and there are two reasons.

The first, is the simple fact that it’s good to know how likely you are to hit your hand. The second, and far more important reason, is that knowing how many outs you have allows you to make solid mathematical decisions, when faced with a bet. We’ll look at this in the following section.

Should You Call an Opponent’s Bet?

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Using the example above, we can safely say that you’ll hit your hand – on average – once in every 6 times when the turn card is dealt.

Now, let’s say there is currently $40 in the pot, and your opponent bets $10. There are no other players in the hand.

In order to see a turn card, you must call $10. With the $40 in the pot, and the $10 your opponent bet, that means you’re required to risk $10, to have the potential to win $50. This means you’re getting 1:5 on your money – which means that over the long run, this would be a losing play, to call.

Now, say that there was $80 in the pot already, instead of $40. Now, when your opponent bets $10, you have to call $10 to have the chance of winning $90 – meaning you’re getting 1:9 on your money. In this scenario, it would almost always be a profitable decision to call, as, while you won’t always hit your hand, you’re getting odds that make it worthwhile, as over the long-run it would be a profitable, winning move.

That’s just one example, and of course, things become more complex when you start involving multiple players, and factoring in the possibility of re-raises. That being said, it should serve as a good starting-point for you to learn more about “outs”, and how they tie in with poker odds.

Tips to Improve Your Knowledge of Poker Odds

Like many things in life, having a firm grasp of poker odds and poker statistics takes time. There is no “quick-fire” way to memorize everything about odds, and how to use them in your game, and much of it comes from practice.

Thankfully, there are many great poker theory books available to purchase today, that you can use to improve your knowledge of the game and determine your odds of hitting your poker outs.
It’s worth pointing out that poker theory can become very complex – and even things like the poker outs example we looked at above can become difficult, when looking at things like reverse-implied odds.

As a general rule of thumb, the best thing to do is to simply stay calm while playing, and figure out how many cards you need to hit your hand. Calculate whether you’re getting the right pot odds to call to try and hit one of your poker outs – and don’t forget to factor in the fact that if there are multiple players to act after you, there’s a chance you may get raised and subsequently forced out of the hand.

Things to Remember

It’s important to note that many times, you’ll probably find that you simply don’t have time – or you forget – to work out the odds, especially when you’re in the middle of a hectic hand. However, try to brush up on your knowledge of poker winning hands from time to time, as you’ll find that this will soon become concreted within your brain, helping you to get a firm grasp on the game.

Frequently Asked Questions

Below, we’re going to finish this guide by answering a few commonly asked questions about poker odds.

How to Work Out Outs In Your Head

Like we just mentioned, there will often be times that it just seems too confusing, or hard to work out the odds in your head. When you find yourself in situations like these, one of the best pieces of advice we can offer, is to just slow down, take a deep breathe, and keep yourself calm and collected.

In most Texas Hold’em games, you’ll have ample time to think about the hand, and the odds – and if you’re looking for a quick way to work them out, it can help to brush up on some of the more common situations you’ll come across. For example, if you hold a pair pre-flop, and find yourself against a player holding two over cards, there is pretty much a 50/50 chance of you winning the hand.

Things like this can help – but above and beyond, it all comes down to practice as we keep mentioning, so spend a few minutes every day reading about poker statistics, and you’ll soon find that it becomes second nature to you!

What Are Outs?

The “outs” are the cards that you can hit to complete your hand. Say, for example, that you hold 2 cards that are suited hearts, and the flop contains another two cards that are hearts, and one spade. You “outs” are the remaining heart cards in the deck that can be drawn on the turn or the river, to help you complete your hand.

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How to Count Outs

To determine how many outs you have, you simply need to work out how many cards there are in the deck that help you to complete your hand – and then minus the two hole cards you’ve been dealt, and the community cards currently visible.

Odds of Winning Poker

Some of the most common poker hands that you’d want to know the odds of, include an open-ended straight draw, which has odds of approximately 6/1, four-to-a-flush, which offers odds of around 4/1, an inside straight draw, which is approximately 10/1, and having a pair pre-flop which then turns into a set when the community cards are dealt, which is approximately 8/1.

Odds of Being Dealt Poker Aces

The odds of being dealt pocket aces in a standard Texas Hold’em game is around 220/1. This means that every 220 hands you play, you can expect to see pocket aces once – although, as is the case with ANY type of gambling, it could be 2,000 hands before you see aces… or you may see them back-to-back. It’s all a game of chance at the end of the day.

Chances of Winning with Pocket Aces

Pocket aces are – by far – the strongest starting hand in Texas Hold’em, and the chances of you winning with them largely depends on how many players are also in the hand with you. As a general rule of thumb, if you hold pocket aces on a 9-player table, you have odds of around 25% to win the hand at showdown – but the odds of you winning improve as more players drop out of the hand, so it can often be a good idea to play aces aggressively to avoid too many players joining the hand.

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It’s incredibly difficult to put your opponent on an exact hand. Therefore, most of the time, you have to think in terms of poker hand ranges. Even though you don’t have a specific idea of what cards are in your opponent’s hand, a hand range gives you something to work with.

Beginners may not have thought of this, but winning players make almost all their decisions based on poker hand ranges and knowing the different types of poker hands you might get is extremely important. Your every action changes an opponent’s idea of your hand range and vice-versa. You can have anything when cards are dealt but every fold, call or raise tells something about the range of hands you can have.

Most players fail to make the effort to figure out a hand range. However, every player who intends to be a long-term winner needs to know how to analyze and weight hand ranges.

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Poker Hand Combinations

How to use a poker range calculator? In order to be able to calculate a range of hands, the first thing you need to keep in mind is how many possible hand combinations there are for different types of hands:

So what does the table tell you?

• There are more variations of non-paired hands than pocket pairs.
  For example, if you think an opponent’s hand range is 44 and 87, it’s more likely for the opponent to have 87 (16 combinations) than 44 (six combinations).
• There are four combinations of suited non-paired hands and 12 combinations of off-suited non-paired hands. Knowing this makes it easier to calculate the likelihood of an opponent having a suited hand.

Using Hand Ranges in Poker

Here’s a scenario: you raise with AK-offsuit pre-flop and the opponent calls. You know the opponent calls in this situation 15% of the time. According to Equilab, here’s the top 15% of poker hands (although someone’s 15% can include different hands–for example, one might play 66 rather than KT-offsuit):

You have AK-offsuit, and you’d like to figure out how your hand matches up against the opponent’s hand range. So you use Equilab to calculate it and you see that AK-offsuit has 61.36% equity while the opponent has 38.64%. Sounds like a good deal for you.

Most players assume they’d do well but they have never thought their opponent’s hand range through and evaluated it against their own hand. Once you get the habit of using an equity calculator, you’ll be surprised by how much or little equity certain hands have against certain hand ranges.

Your idea of an opponent’s hand range changes with every decision the opponent makes. So let’s say, instead of calling your raise, the opponent decides to raise, which he does 3.75% of the time. Here’s the hand range:

Based on the opponent’s hand range, he’d now have ~57% equity. When he just calls, you’re still ahead of his hand range; when he re-raises, your AK-offsuit is in trouble.

Weighted Hand Ranges

But an opponent may play certain hands out of his hand range more often than others. For example, instead of re-raising 100% of the time with 99, he may only do so 50% of the time. Based on your reads, you assign more or less weight to a certain hand in a range of hands and, just like before, calculate how your hand does against it.

And it can make a big difference. For example, an opponent’s hand range is AA and QQ while you have KK. In case the opponent plays both AA and QQ 100% of the time in that situation, you might consider your chances of winning poker around 50%, but if the opponent plays AA 100% of the time and only plays QQ some other % of the time, your chances of winning take a hit. You’d be going against AA the majority of the time.

How to Calculate a Weighted Hand Range

So let’s say you have JJ pre-flop and you’re up against an all-in raise. You think the opponent could do this with AA, KK, QQ, AK, and AQ. How many hand combinations do you beat and how many beat you?

Hand combinations that beat you:

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Hand combinations that you beat:

You beat 32 of your opponent’s hand combinations and the opponent beats you with 18 combinations. By using Equilab, we can see that your equity is 42.60%. If, however, the opponent only has AK and AQ 50% of the time (which is a relatively realistic scenario), here’s what happens:

Hand combinations that beat you v2:

Hand combinations that you beat v2:

And by using Equilab, we can see that our equity drops to about 36%. That’s a dramatic difference in the long run. which can make the difference between whether you should call or fold, which obviously depends on pot and bet sizes and how much money you and your opponent have left.

Learning to weight poker hand ranges is worth your while. Weighting hand ranges gives you more accurate information about your chances in different poker situations as long as you determine the hand combinations right. Like in almost every skill game in the world, the more complicated a theory is, the harder it is to execute and the more profitable it is when executed perfectly. With a little bit of work and thinking you’ll get more accurate calculations.

How to Manipulate Hand Ranges

The basic idea of manipulating hand ranges is To make strong hands look weak and the other way around. This way we can get the most out of our hands because either the opponent likes to call when we’ve got a tight range of hands – meaning we can get the money in with a strong hand – or the opponent likes to fold when we’ve got a loose range, meaning we can get the opponent to fold when we have a weak hand.

One of the biggest problems is to recognize what strong and weak play is in an opponent’s opinion. Obviously Lisa and Bart are going to read situations differently and they’re going to end up having different ideas of who’s weak and who isn’t. Another problem is to know who’s been paying attention to the game and who has other things to focus on. You have to rely on the idea that the opponent follows the game at least semi-closely and adjusts his play optimally against your range of hands. Usually it’s easy to tell who’s following the game, though.

The third problem would be to understand how an opponent reacts to the way you play. There are different ways for players to react, obviously, since otherwise all the players would play the same way. Some make logical decisions, some don’t.

All of these points must be taken into consideration when manipulating hand ranges in poker. It’s of no use to build an image for yourself if the opponent pays no attention to the game. It might be counterproductive to build an image if the opponent reacts unlike you expected. You’ll always have to consider these points when building a player image and manipulating your range.

Common Mistakes – Being Optimistic

The biggest mistake when figuring out a hand range is to have too much optimism when making decisions. For example, always believing the best and creating hand ranges that are convenient for you is a huge mistake and misses the whole idea. It’s not just about winning; it’s also about losing the least possible. By realizing your hand range is unprofitable against an opponent’s hand range, you avoid losing money.

Giving Up

Losing is a part of poker and beating most of an opponent’s range doesn’t mean you’ll win all of the pots. You’ll lose a certain percentage of them, and you may even have an extremely unlikely run of losses but such is variance.

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